Whether you are spending time camping in dense forests, hiking amongst the Rocky Mountains’ beauty, or walking the Bruce or other popular trails of North America, you will encounter many others. If you have spent time in an airport lately, you have also been surrounded by crowds of travelers. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if you are spending time in the office, or riding public transit, the density of people is much less. North Americans and Europeans have changed their relationship to work. Some of these shifts, in response to COVID, lockdowns and remote working, will become permanent.
What I am starting to consider is the longer-term picture. There are several factors that will influence the workplace of the future.
Labour shortages – across all sectors and job types
Air travel is not a lot of fun right now. COVID testing, vaccine requirements, and attestations have added complexity to travel. But even if these become more permanent fixtures (Peru, Brazil and other countries have long required proof of yellow fever vaccine upon entry), they are not the biggest travel disruptors. COVID protocols will end or become the norm, but that will not fully address the disruptive travel experience.
A shortage of pilots and flight attendants, combined with the uptick in demand, is exacerbating the issue. Pilots’ unions have been warning airlines of this pending shortage since well before COVID. Like many late career professionals, pilots and flight attendants who have been out of work for several months have reassessed their careers and lives, and many have decided to retire 2-4 years earlier than planned. They have adjusted their lifestyles and are not planning to return.
This demographic shift is also dramatically affecting trades, not just in North America, but in the United Kingdom and European Union as well. Blue-collar workers are in strong demand for commercial and residential construction, operating and maintaining oil rigs, etc.
Despite efforts to entice more women to science, technology, engineering, and math, this remains an area of opportunity. Women comprise nearly 50% of the US workforce and hold 27% of the STEM jobs. The result is that there are not enough qualified people to fill the demand for these professional roles, across the globe.
Help wanted signs abound. It is particularly challenging for retail operations. Restaurants are operating with reduced hours. Retail stores are seeking persons for all positions, and this is independent of the type of business.
Hospitals have been hard hit with the fourth wave of COVID. I have spoken with several healthcare workers who have said that they will stay with the job to see patients through this crisis, and then they will leave the profession, retire early, or take work in a different field.
Of course, demographics are contributing to the gaps. As with pilots, flight attendants, and nurses, many experienced workers, professionals, and blue-collar workers have reached or are approaching retirement age. While many are staying active with part-time work, their job shifts have created a gap.
Investments and Housing
Those who have held investments since the 2008 financial crisis have benefited from a long running bull market. Homeowners have seen a material increase in the value of their homes, particularly in major cities in Canada. Unfortunately, this has created an even bigger gap between homeowners and non-homeowners, and those with or without investments or pensions. That is a discussion for another time.
For those who have benefited, there are implications to the labour market. Workers can afford to take time off and wait for an ideal career opportunity. This includes millennials, many of whom have a safety net to fall back on — moving in with their parents. For those living independently, many parents report that they will or have provided money for their adult children to buy homes or return to school.
Urban dwellers migrated to their cottages or second homes, or rented properties in locations that provided more physical space (indoors and outdoors), and access to recreational activities such as walking, biking, and skiing. They enjoyed the freedom from commutes on packed highways or crowded public transit, and condo living. Some sold their homes in the city and do not intend to return to the urban core. They are expecting employers to support permanent remote work, on at least a part-time, if not full-time basis.
During lockdowns and remote work, there was a migration from metropolitan cities, particularly from condos and apartments to larger homes with space for remote workers and children home schooling, etc. While working at home with children under foot created major challenges, it had benefits for some. Many appreciated the lack of a commute, a back yard, and the ability to balance home demands more easily.
Companies did not renew commercial leases and/or sold real estate. Some jobs will not return to an office environment. An insurance company cited a 20 percent productivity boost with employees working at home.
Ongoing Challenges
What additional challenges, if any, are you experiencing? Do you expect a positive turnaround for your business or industry? In a future article, I will share some of the strategies that companies are embracing to address the seismic shifts in the labour market.
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